Somehow, USC managed to screw things up again.
Fresh off of a bye week which followed a drumming of top 5 ranked OSU, Southern California shits the bed in Corvallis and loses to Oregon State 21-27. The loss is only the latest example of USC overlooking their opponents; last year, Stanford beat the Trojans at home, and the year before that, Oregon State beat them in Corvallis again. The problem here? The players believe their own hype, and the coaching staff isn't doing a good job of keeping them focused. I can't really lay blame at the feet of ESPN or any other sports media here; they're doing their jobs by building USC up into the team that many thought they truly were. However, it's up to the players to turn the damn TV off and realize that without the wins to back it up, all the hype doesn't mean shit. Furthermore, it's up to the coaches to keep a team full of 18 year olds grounded and help them realize that truly great teams take care of business against lesser competition.
Instead, USC has another year of "what ifs."
And now, on to this week's picks. I went 4-1 last week, and I think I can run the table with this slate:
1. Ole Miss at Florida: Florida comes into this game 3-0, largely on the strength of great defense and even better special teams. Think Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin have been the MVPs so far? Think again. Brandon James has been the guy who's given other teams fits, with big returns on kickoffs and punts. With this in mind, look for Ole Miss to try and take James out of the game by kicking away from him. If they succeed, it should force the Gators to open up the offensive playbook; they've been able to get away with conservative playcalling so far because of good field position. However, if the Rebels take away James, we could finally see Tebow, Harvin, and the rest of Florida's playmakers have an impact. Defensively, Florida shouldn't change things up: stop the run, tackle well, and play well at the corners. As for Ole Miss, quaterback Jevan Snead could present a problem for the Gator defense; he's thrown more picks than touchdown passes, but he does have two playmakers at wide receiver in Mike Wallace and Marshay Green. Look for Ole Miss to test the secondary early by going to the duo, using the pass game to open up their offense. If they succeed, the Gators front line may be in for a long game at home.
My Prediction: This could be a letdown game for Florida, as they return from a big win on the road against Tennessee. However, after a similar scenario last year and a 6 point win over the Rebels, look for Urban Meyer to keep his team motivated this time around, especially since the game is at home. Florida should be able to keep Ole Miss' run game stuffed, which will force Snead to pass in order to keep them in the game. With enough passes, the defense should be able to force him into mistakes. Offensively, the Gators will be fine so long as they protect Tebow; they did a good job of this last week, and should be able to keep up the good work this week. With the emergence of Emmanuel Moody, look for him to get touches early and often in order to soften up the Ole Miss defense. Snead may be able to give the Gators a test with his arm, but Ole Miss doesn't have the playmakers as a team to topple the Gators.
Score: Florida 34, Ole Miss 17
2. Penn State at Illinois: Penn State looks like the Big Ten favoris thus far, while Illinois has struggled to a 2-1 start. The Nittany Lions have opened up the playbook, put speed on the field, and coasted to a 4-0 start to their year. Quarterback Daryl Clark has been near flawless so far, and their defense has yet to show signs of weakness. However, the Fighting Illini will be their first big test of the year. Juice Williams has worked hard to improve on his accuracy, and so far, the results have been good. So far, he's completed 60% of his passes, and while he's thrown nearly as many interceptions (5) as TD passes (7), he's become a better playmaker for his team. Tailback Daniel Dufrene has filled in admirably for the departed Rashard Mendenhall, rushing for 300 yards and getting almost 7 yards per carry. The tandem should provide problems for Penn State's untested defense. As for Illinois' defense, they haven't shown the ability to shut down legitimate offenses; they surrended 52 points to Missouri's high powered offense, and 549 yards of offense. With the Lions instituing the spread offense, playmakers like Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Evan Royster, and Stephon Green could shine. Norwood is PSU's leading receiver, and the tandem of Green and Royster has combined for 547 rushing yards on 7.6 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns. If the duo gets going early, PSU could have the game in hand by halftime.
My Prediction: This game has the makings of a shootout, but I don't think this will be the case. Penn State traditionally fields a strong defense, and Illinois should get a boost by playing at home. However, both offenses will get their chances to shine. The Fighting Illini will see good play from Juice Williams, but their running game will falter. Meanwhile, Royster and Green will pace the Nittany Lion offense, but Daryl Clark will struggle in his first game against a good opponent. This game could come down to which team takes care of the ball best, and given Williams' problems with interceptions, my money's on the Illini fighting hard but coming up short.......again.
Score: Penn State 24, Illinois 21
3. Alabama at Georgia: Alabama might be the most surprising team so far this year. They've started off the season undefeatead, and are fresh off of a 49-14 beatdown of Arkansas. Meanwhile, Georgia, the preseason #1, has fallen to #3 despite a convincing 27-10 win on the road against Arizona State. Knowshon Moreno gave them 150 yards rushing and two touchdowns, but freshman receiver AJ Green was the game's MVP as he grabbed 8 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown. He comes into this game hoping to give Bama's secondary fits. Meanwhile, Bama has used a strong run game and good defensive play to climb the rankings. Quarterback John Parker Wilson hasn't been asked to win the Tide any games so far, and with such an effective ground game, one can't blame Nick Saban for not doing so. That said, Parker will have to step up big against the Bulldogs, as Georgia's defense is too fast and athletic to simply be run over. They must be made to respect the passing game, or Georgia's defense will run wild.
My Prediction: Matthew Stafford has been maligned for being an unspectacular QB throughout his career, but he's improved this year; addtionally, with Green stepping up as a go-to-guy, it could open up the field for other receivers to do damage. No doubt the Bama D has seen tape of Green, so with the focus being on him, his biggest role on the field this week could be as a decoy for the receivers further down the depth chart. Moreno won't have the glamorous stats this game, but he's good enough to make the Tide defense remain honest. That said, Stafford will have to be on point with his throws tomorrow. The same goes for Wilson, whose task is bigger because he does not have the go-to-guy that Stafford has. Julio Jones has shown flashes of greatness, but hasn't been given the opportunity to step up like Green has. They do, however, have a great stable of back led by Glenn Coffee, and it'll be up to them to keep the pressure off of Wilson. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening for the whole game, which gives Georgia the chance to take over on offense and exploit Bama's lack of depth on defense.
Score: Georgia 27, Alabama 17
4. Colorado at Florida State: Colorado is undefeated, and Florida State may be the worst 2-1 team in the nation right now. After coasting to back to back wins over FCS teams, the Seminoles got a dose of reality after being held to a paltry three points by Wake Forest. Meanwhile, Colorado is fresh off of a big win against a wavering West Virginia team. They face off against FSU in Jacksonville in hopes of improving to 4-0; meanwhile, the Seminoles look to put last week behind them and get some improved play on offense. Quarterback play will be key, as either D'Vontrey Richardson or Christian Ponder must step up and play better; both finished 6-18 passing against the Demon Deacons. With their offense reeling, they will have to rely on their defense to keep them in the game against a Buffalo team that has a balanced attack. Quarterback Cody Hawkins has completed 70% of his passes so far, and tailback Rodney Stewart is fresh off of a 166 rushing yard performance against the Mountaineers. If Colorado can get it going again this week, FSU will be in for a long game.
My Prediction: This one is hard to predict, but my gut says that FSU's offense just won't get it done against the Buffs. Wake's defense is better than CU's, but neither Richardson nor Ponder showed anything that indicates that they'll be able to perform well against a halfway decent defensive unit. CU held West Virginia to 14 points, and managed to hold WVU to a mere 43 yards passing. I don't see FSU's QBs doing much better. The best chance the Seminoles have is to gash Colorado on the run; West Virginia rolled up over 300 yards rushing last week. However, FSU's offensive line isn't nearly as good as WVU's and Ponder/Richardson along with Antone Smith isn't nearly on the level as the duo of Pat White and Noel Devine; Ponder and/or Richardson could keep the Buffs' defense on its toes by making plays out of the pocket, though. Colorado will win this game ultimately because of FSU's ineptitude on offense; they will be unable to consistently make plays, and the defensive unit will be left on the field too long for them to keep the Buffaloes out of the endzone for the entire game.
Score: Colorado 21, Florida State 13
5. Virginia Tech at Nebraska: Nebraska has stormed out of the gates at 3-0, while Virginia Tech has recovered nicely after an opening season loss to East Carolina by defeating, Georgia Tech and coming back to win over North Carolina. The reason? They've been able to force turnovers. After drawing even on the turnover margin battle against ECU, VT has managed a +6 margin in their three consecutive wins. If they can keep up the trend against the Huskers, they'll keep themselves in the game. Meanwhile, Nebraska has used a balanced attack to coast to their three wins. Quarterback Joe Ganz has passed for over 700 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Nebraska has relied on a stable of tailbacks to pace the running game. They have home field adantage in this game and hope to keep VT's defense honest; if they succeed, the onus will rest on Tyrod Taylor to keep the Hokies competitive. He sparked their offense to a win over Furman by running for 112 yards, and passed the ball well during VT's second half comeback over the Tar Heels. If NU's offense does well, he'll have to respond against their defense. NU's D is untested to this point, and could struggle against Taylor if he can make plays with his feet.
My Prediction: Another difficult game to predict. I do think that Nebraska holds a slight edge in this game due to their developmnt on offense. The Hokies' defense also hasn't been up to snuff thus far. Despite being 3-1, VT gives up more yards than it gains--by an almost 60 yard margin. Plus, they have struggled at the QB position. Taylor is a threat with his feet, but is still an inconsistent passer. Against an offense of Nebraska's caliber, limiting turnovers is a must for VT, particularly given that the team lacks playmakers on offense outside of Taylor. To that end, VT must play well on defense; containing Marlon Lucky is essential, as is putting pressure on Joe Ganz. They'll need to force the Conrhuskers into making mistakes in order to pull out a win on the road, and if they succeed in doing this, it could come down to special teams or a last drive on offense for either team. Unfortunately, I just don't see VT coming up with enough offensively to beat Nebraska.
Score: Nebraska 27, Virginia Tech 14
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