Shakedown Saturday: Five Game Pickem

Five intriguing college football games to catch this weekend:


1. Florida vs. Tennessee: The Volunteers are looking to show that their loss to UCLA was a fluke, while the Gators are ready to show that their defense is for real. Fresh off of a dominating defensive performance against the Miami Hurricanes--one in which they surrended just 3 points and 140 totals yards of offense--the Gators travel to Neyland Stadium to face a Tennessee team that not only opened the season with a loss to UCLA, but struggled for two and a half quarters against UAB. The Vol offense, led by Arian Foster, is set to defend their pride, and their coach's honor, as rumors of Philip Fulmer 's demise have only grown louder the past two games. Look for UT to test the Gator front line early and often with Foster, Hardesty, and Creer, in hopes of establishing the run game. Meanwhile, on Florida's side, look for the Gators to try and get Emmanuel Moody involved early on in order to open things up for Tim Tebow.
My Prediction: UT's defensive line better get to Tim Tebow often, or else they'll be in a lot of trouble early on. They've only gotten two sacks so far this year, and Florida's offensive line gets a big boost with the return of Jim Tartt to the starting rotation. Beyond Tebow, Florida simply has too many weapons on offense to be contained. Miami's defense, for all of its speed, eventually gave out in the fourth quarter against the Gators. Look for Tennessee's defense to do the same as Tebow paces the offense and Harvin, Rainey, Demps, and the rest take advantage of the open space. Even if Tennessee can run the ball, it may not matter if UT is forced to turn to the inconsistent arm of Johnathan Crompton early in the game.
Score: Florida 31, Tennessee 17

2. Wake Forest vs. Florida State: A few years ago, this wouldn't even be a debate. Anybody who said Wake could beat FSU was either living in North Carolina or La-La Land. Recently, however, Jim Grobe's taken the program by the reigns and turned the Demon Deacons into a pretty damn good team. Two years ago, they won the ACC, and last year, they finished 9-4 with a bowl game victory against Connecticut. Meanwhile, FSU has gone from perennial powerhouse to laughingstock. Last year saw them finished the year 7-6, including a bowl loss to Kentucky. This year, the Seminoles look to break their two game losing streak to Wake; to reverse their fortunes, they've changed QBs, benching Drew Weatherford for Christian Ponder, and so far this year, he's looked good as FSU coasted to victories during their first two games against Chattanooga and Western Carolina. Meanwhile, Wake is coming off of consecutive victories against Baylor and Ole Miss. Coming into Doak Campbell Stadium tomorrow, look for Wake Forest to try and establish the run with Josh Adams while looking to senior QB Riley Skinner to manage the offense. He's efficient as quarterback, and he can make plays with his feet if necessary. They'll look to control the clock and rely on their disciplined defense to keep FSU's scoring chances limited. FSU, on the other hand, will hope that star WR Preston Parker can open up their offense enough for Ponder to find open receivers.
My Prediction: Wake has better coaching, and should be able to control the clock long enough to limit FSU's shots at scoring on offense. If Skinner can take care of the ball (which is a safe bet), the Demon Deacons should be able to tire out FSU's defense, which should result in points for them. For FSU, though, they have yet to be tested at this point in the season. Their two wins this season have been against Division I-AA opponents, so whether or not the Seminoles can play at the same level against better competition is a question mark at this point. Plus, I'm really not sold on them being as disciplined as Wake is. The addition of Chuck Amato hasn't helped in that regard yet, and I'm not sure that it will, either. WF lacks the athletes, but they have the coaching edge here.
Score: Wake Forest 24, FSU 19

3. LSU at Auburn: The defending champions get their first test of the season when they go to Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday. They looked good in dismantling their first two opponents of the year in Appalachian State and North Texas, beating them by a combined score of 82-16. Meanwhile, Auburn's struggled on offense at times, beginning the year by rotating Kodi Burns and Chris Todd before finally settling on the latter as the starter. However, things may change for Todd in the wake of a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State that has left Tiger fans wondering whether or not the change to a spread offense was a good idea. Fortunately, their defense has picked up the slack, as they've only given up 15 points in three games and allowed three third down conversions on 46 attempts. LSU is going to have to depend on their stable of runningbacks, led by Charles Scott who has exploded for 262 rushing yards in LSU's first two games; if they can establish a successful ground game, it may open up the field for their quarterbacks, Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch. If they can't, then it's going to be tough sledding for the duo. For Auburn, it's going to be much the same thing; Brad Lester and Ben Tate are going to have to open up holes for either Todd or Burns passing, otherwise, their effectiveness will be severely limited.
My Prediction: This is going to be a low-scoring affair to say the least; both teams have major question marks on offense, but both have stingy defensive units as well. To that, I don't see either team doing much on the ground or in the air. However, I do think that Auburn pulls this game out by going back to Kodi Burns; his ability to scramble can make the difference against a LSU defense that will be gearing to stop Tate and Lester. If he can gain some yards on the ground, it could force LSU to stay honest enough for Auburn to get the extra scoring opportunity they need to win this game. In a game like this, where the two teams are so similar, coaching is the tie-breaker, and for me, that edge goes to Tommy Tuberville and the Auburn Tigers.
Score: Auburn 10, LSU 7

4. Georgia at Arizona State: Georgia started the year at #1, but has fallen to #3 despite continuing to win. The reason? A combination of impressive wins by the two teams that passed them (OU beating Cincinnati by 26, and USC's 32 point win over Ohio State), as well as some less than impressive showings by the Bulldogs. UGA gave up 21 points in their opener against DI-AA opponent Georgia Southern, then needed a late defensive stand to hold off a staggeringly mediocre South Carolina team. Now, they have a chance to prove the pollsters wrong if they can win convincingly against the Sun Devils tomorrow. This game lost a lot of its luster after ASU's loss to UNLV, but Arizona State is still a solid team that could challenge for second place in the Pac-10 this year. Led by quarterback Rudy Carpenter, the Sun Devils hope to make UGA's first trip west of the Mississippi River in over 40 years one they'd like to forget. To that end, it is absolutely essential that they protect Carpenter an get the ball out of his hands quickly on pass plays. They'll also need to run effectively enough to stop UGA from constantly sending blitzes his way. If they can hold off Georgia's front seven, then Carpenter could pick apart their secondary just as South Carolina's Chris Smelley did a week ago. If not, then UGA could win this game easily. For UGA, they simply have to play their game, and play it well. Knowshon Moreno has to set the pace early, which would then allow Matthew Stafford the chance to hit his receivers deep on playaction passes. Most importantly, though, they can't let the unfamiliar territory get to them; in this game, they cannot afford to make early mistakes on either side of the ball, or they run the risk of ASU pulling off the upset.
My Prediction: UGA should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides; ASU still has major questions to answer on their offensive line, and Georgia has done a good job of protecting Stafford and opening up running lanes so far this year. The Sun Devils simply aren't physical enough to win this game; they were manhandled by USC and Texas last year, and UNLV was able to pressure Rudy Carpenter into bad throws last week in their win. UGA should adopt a similar philosophy coming into tomorrow's game; thus, it's going to be up to ASU tailbacks Dmitri Nance and Keegan Herring to burn the Bulldogs when they blitz. Offensively, UGA should have equal success, with Moreno and Caleb King pacing them with the ground game and Stafford being able to capitalize on open receivers. Dennis Erickson has done a good job of turning ASU into a solid team, but they're not ready to take on a team of Georgia's caliber. A late score will make this game a lot closer than it really was.
Score: Georgia 31, Arizona State 21

5. Miami at Texas A&M: And to think, this game would have seemed interesting a couple of years ago. Now, it seems like a non-event, as both teams are undergoing renovations. Miami's working with a relatively new coaching staff, and Texas A&M has hobbled out of the gate with a new head coach and an injury-riddled team. After suffering a humiliating opening night loss to the Sun Belt's Arkansas State, the Aggies bounced back with a six point win over New Mexico. Now, they host the Hurricanes, fresh off of a 23 point loss at the hands of the Florida Gators. However, the Canes have a silver lining to bring with them, as they showed that the hiring of Kansas Defensive Coordinator Bill Young is already paying dividends. The 'Cane defense held Florida to a mere 9 points through three quarters of play, before tiring and giving up 17 in the fourth. They also get to see more of Robert Marve, the redshirt freshman quarterback who is set to start for Miami for the year, and the team hopes that he can hit his stride against Texas A&M after a lukewarm debut against Florida. The Aggies are looking to put together a win streak before their non-conference schedule ends, but with injuries to Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson among others, such a hope seems far-fetched. Their best bet to win this game is to get Jerrod Johnson to keep Miami's defense honest; he's going to have to be effective running and passing the ball in order to do this. However, this may be a tall order for a guy who never started a game before the beginning of this season. For Miami, they have to execute better on offense; receiver can't drop passes, and most of all, the playcalling can't be vanilla. At this point, what does Miami have to lose? Expectations for them aren't exactly high, and Offensive Coordinator Patrick Nix has to do something to keep his job. If he doesn't open up the playbook this week, he may not be around next year.
My Prediction: This game is going to be grueling to watch. Neither offense can do much of anything, though I do like Miami's to do more damage simply because they have more healthy guys who can make a difference. Plus, I'm not sure that even Patrick Nix could manage to keep the 'Canes from scoring a few touchdowns against a downright pathetic TAMU squad. Their running game should be able to set the tone early, and Marve should then be able to make enough good throws to put Miami in a position to score. Their defense will definitely do its job if the Florida game was any indication; there's simply too much speed and athleticism on that unit for them to fail against a depleted Aggie offense.
Score: Miami 21, Texas A&M 10