College Basketball Time!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, it's been CBB season for a while now, but we're behind the times here. First off, let me say this: Duke is soft. Not as soft as they have been in recent years, but they're still soft. - Anyone who watched their game against Wake Forest should know that Wake should've won by a lot more; they shouldn't have needed a last second lay-in to pull off that win. They held Duke to 33% shooting from the field, 18% from three, and had nine blocks in the game. They were outrebounded by Duke 45-39, but the Demon Deacons controlled the pace of the game throughout. Were it not for a number of missed free throws down the stretch, Wake wins that game comfortably. I will say this about Duke, though; they're tougher than they've been the past few years. Gerald Henderson has grown into a playmaker for them, and Kyle Singler can rebound with the best of them. However, they have two problems: they're not very tough on the inside, and they don't have guys who consistently step up for them outside of Singler and Henderson. Singler scored 22 points last night, but did so on 21 shots; Wake contested every shot in the paint (and along the perimeter as well), and down the stretch, they grabbed defensive rebounds to limit Duke's offensive opportunities. The second is that Duke is essential a two man team in tough games; talk about guys like John Scheyer and Greg Paulus all you want, but they were nowhere to be found last night. Duke mounted a comeback because of Henderson and Singler; it was a shot by Henderson that tied the game at 68 with 9 seconds left, and it was Singler's rebounding that allowed them to climb back into the game after Wake had clearly established momentum. If Duke is going to go deep in the NCAA touranament--which I don't think they will--they're going to have to get tougher in the paint. You can't let Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson control the paint on defense like they did. You can't give up easy layups at the end of the game like Duke did, either.


- Florida's been here before. After stomping Georgia last night, Florida is 18-3, and 5-1 in conference. At this time last year, Florida gave up a double digit lead in Knoxville against Tennessee, and lost by more than 20. They finished the year 21-11, missed the NCAA tournament, and made the NIT semifinals before losing to UMass. Obviously, the Gators are looking to improve this year, but in a lot of ways, this is the same team that missed the big dance last year. Much like Duke, Florida is soft on the inside; they're weak in the paint, and they live by the perimeter game, particularly the three. If their shots aren't falling, it's hard for Florida to win games. A plus, however, is that the team is a year older and wiser. Several players have admitted to looking ahead to the tournament during this same point last year. The lessons of missing the tournament seem to have taught them to not get complacent. Most important, though, is the growth of Florida's players; guys like Alex Tyus and Chandler Parsons have grown, and freshmen like Erving Walker and Kenny Kadji, have been able to step in and make an impact on the team. Nick Calathes, however, is the most important piece of this puzzle. He was good as a freshman last year, but he has been outstanding this year.

His FG% is up this year dramatically; he has improved from being a 42.6% shooter last year to a 52.5% shooter this year--on the exact same number of shots per game. This means that with the same volume of shots, Calathes is simply become better at shooting. He's also taking better shots; he doesn't seem to force the issue nearly as much as he did last year. Having a solid supporting cast has helped, too; Chandler Parsons has started to improve after a rough beginning to his year, Alex Tyus has stepped his play up, and other guys--Walter Hodge, Erving Walker, and Dan Werner--can all shoot from deep. The end result is that it becomes more difficult for defenses to key in on Calathes; focusing on him means that you take a gamble on letting another guy hit an open shot. Florida is decent from deep--the Gators shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc--but also hit 49.5% of their shots overall, good for 6th in the country in that category. In order to make the tourney, Florida has to keep up the good shooting; not rushed shots perse, but they have to continue taking good shots when they get them. Calathes has done an exceptional job of passing and creating for his teammates this year, something he'll need to do if Florida wants to knock of Tennessee on Saturday. If they do, it'll be a huge confidence booster for a team looking to close out the year on a strong note. With ten games left this year, Florida plays:

at Tennessee
South Carolina
at Kentucky
at Georgia
Alabama
Vanderbilt
at LSU
Tennessee
at Mississippi State
Kentucky

I think we need to win at least 6 of those game in order to make the tournament; the SEC is down this year, and the conference might get three bids if it's lucky. Personally, I think Florida, Kentucky, and LSU are going to be those three. From this schedule, I see Florida dropping games to LSU, Kentucky (on the road), and maybe Tennessee (at home). Mississippi State has a shot given their size in the paint, but they're a very inconsistent team. Overall, I think the Gators close out the stretch with a 7-3 record, which would put them at 25-6 overall, and should comfortably place them in the NCAA tournament.